Is it sunny? It matters
The draft of this article was written the old-fashioned way. Pen and paper, drafted while sitting on a rock at the beach on an unseasonably nice afternoon.
The weather guys probably didn’t know this afternoon was going to be quite as sunny and pleasant as it turned out to be. I’m pretty sure no marketing department predicted it.
It reminded me that no matter how much data you use to predict people’s behaviour, there is always the element of biology that will affect what people do and how they act. Using data to time marketing on a detailed individual consumer level sounds great in theory, but will be subject to a heap of factors that no data can predict for.
Including biological responses to external factors. Miss these, and you can end up misled.
Companies that send electronic marketing messages measure performance and relate this back to the message and the offer, and the target market details.
There is only so much detail you can get into before you need to stop, and recognise that biology is important.
There are plenty of other factors, though. Weather is one, and it’s usually overlooked. On a sunny day, people will generally prefer to be outside, doing things other than reading email.
Big data is being used to predict individual preferences, including to help determine the exact time of day that individuals are more likely to be receptive to advertisements. Great in theory. Some behaviour is entirely predictable. An office worker will be at their desk at 9am Monday. And again at 9am Tuesday.
But their responsiveness will be different.
People operate on regular cycles of alertness, rest and sleep. It’s the circadian rhythm, the body clock. Our alarm clocks work on a 24-hour cycle. Our body clocks generally work on a 25-hour cycle… the natural 24-hour cycle gets extended out by exposure to artificial light at night. Some people prefer to operate on even longer cycles.
We’re all different, and we’re all different to our alarm clocks. This means that at the same times but on different days, we’ll feel different. This means we’ll act different.
Seasons and latitude make a difference too.
Timing behaviour predictions on a 24-hour clock will always make the result a little inaccurate.
Using data helps business, and data-driven insights can be of enormous value, but be aware that data doesn’t drive behaviour and can’t predict all of it either. There is only so much detail you can get into before you need to stop, and recognise that biology is important.
Market forecasting and consumer segmentation are important. We know that economic trends affect business success so some element of timing is important. We know that certain people can be prompted to act in certain ways.
But we also think that making tactical marketing decisions based on information such as an ideal customer being a 35-year-old woman who likes a, b and c and has previously done x, y and z can backfire if the bigger picture isn’t taken into account. The most highly refined and targeted marketing can sometimes miss the mark.
The solution in such cases is not always a more complicated predictive model or more complex algorithm. Sometimes all you need to do is look outside. Is it sunny? It matters.
Michael Hardiman. Director, ZenBus Advisory
